Russia’s calculations when attacking the stronghold of Eastern Ukraine with unprecedented force

Russia's calculations when attacking the stronghold of Eastern Ukraine with unprecedented force 0

(Dan Tri) – After months of siege, Russian forces, with the support of armored vehicles, artillery and air strikes, launched an unprecedented attack on Avdiivka, a strategic city in Donetsk province, Eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Avdiivka (Photo: Getty).

Unprecedented powerful attack

The Ukrainian army said that in the past 3 days, they witnessed an unusually strong Russian attack on Avdiivka.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on October 10, up to 3 Russian battalions, more than 2,000 soldiers, with the support of tanks and armored vehicles, increased attacks on Avdiivka.

At the same time, Russia launched a large-scale airstrike on the largely destroyed city.

`Russia has never used such a large amount of military equipment and such a large number of troops at the same time,` said Vitalii Barabash, head of the Avdiivka military-civil administration.

The Ukrainian army said it repelled 10 Russian attacks on Avdiivka, eight in eastern Stepove and southeast Sieverne on October 11.

A day later, Russia continued to launch 10 more attacks in the direction of Avdiivka, 10 in neighboring directions.

Even on the third day, the fighting showed no signs of decreasing in intensity.

Russian calculations

Russia's calculations when attacking the stronghold of Eastern Ukraine with unprecedented force

Avdiivka is a strategic city in Donetsk, Eastern Ukraine (Photo: ISW).

Ukrainian military officials assess that Russia’s attack on areas along the flanks of Avdiivka shows that Moscow is trying to surround this strategic city.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said the Avdiivka attack shows how Russia is learning lessons and adapting on the battlefield.

According to ISW, Russia is effectively using electronic warfare, counterattack measures, artillery preparation, aerial reconnaissance and communication between units.

However, these adaptations and successes at the tactical level are unlikely to bring broader strategic and operational benefits to Russian forces,` ISW assessed.

According to analyst Ian Matveev, this method of attack shows that Russia is really trying to gain control of the city or at least create the stage for doing so.

He said that Russia cannot quickly gain control of Avdiivka with just flank and frontal attacks but needs to completely surround it.

Even so, Russia is continuing its push for a major symbolic victory after months of defending against Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south and around Bakhmut.

`Russia is trying to get some sort of symbolic victory at Avdiivka. In the early stages, Avdiivka didn’t seem to mean much to Russia, but now, winning Avdiivka is what they’re aiming for.`

The city of Avdiivka is quite close to the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk, only about 23km north and was once an industrial center.

ISW said that focusing on the Lyman – Kupiansk axis could be an attempt by Russia to prevent Ukraine from being able to deploy troops to other fronts.

Military expert Oleh Zhdanov said earlier this year that if Russia took control of Avdiivka, it could push Ukrainian forces away from the gateway to Donetsk.

On the other hand, he warned against exaggerating the strategic value of Avdiivka because this is only a small target in Russia’s military campaign.

According to Mr. Matveev, even if Avdiivka, the Ukrainian army can still withdraw tactically, moving to new positions, further to the west.

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